Game Date: September 12, 2021
Detailed Analysis
Matchup-specific Preview
This article previews the September 12th, NFL Week 1 matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and the Tennessee Titans on CBS Sports. This is an intriguing matchup because of both teams notable offseason additions. Arizona’s main offseason moves were adding AJ Green, JJ Watt, and Rodney Hudson. Each of these players have been staples in the NFL for some time now and will hope to see a resurgence in their careers due to relocation. Tennessee’s biggest offseason addition was signing Julio Jones. Being one of the best receivers in the NFL for the past decade, Tennessee was able to patch up its wide receiver group after the unfortunate exit of Corey Davis. Despite his older age, Jones is still likely to have a big impact on the Titans as he was very effective last year before sustaining an injury. Both teams are very close in terms of talent, with the Titans having a superior offense and the Cardinals having a better defense. This game is arguably the most evenly matched of the whole week and the outcome will be dictated based on how the flow of the game works out.
First round of data analysis
The figure below shows that Arizona has a 57.8% chance of winning this matchup due to their shutdown secondary and great protection on passing downs. Led by top cornerback Patrick Peterson and rising star Budda Baker, the Cardinals secondary was able to shut down most of the offenses it played against last year. Paired with a secure offensive line that thrives on passing downs, opposing teams have had trouble stopping the Cardinals’ aerial attack and penetrating their secondary.
I look at these 4 position groups and simulate who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Arizona will win with the percentages being around 58% for Arizona and 42% for Tennessee after weighting.
Now that we've looked at 2020 data, I am now going to analyze the changes to each of these teams’ roster that have happened over the last 6 months.
Second round of data analysis
The figure below shows that Arizona has a 57.2% chance of winning this matchup due to their dominant offensive line. With the addition of Rodney Hudson, the Cardinals’ offensive line will be even better in every facet of the game. They will become much better run blockers and pass protectors, both of which will be vital in their game against the Titans’ high powered offense.
I looked at the same 4 position groups and simulated who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. The major change I made was that I had my model take into account players lost and gained over the offseason, injured players that are now returning, and the top draft picks made by each team. Each of these offseason changes are listed below:
The Arizona Cardinals’ major additions were DE J.J. Watt, C Rodney Hudson, CB Malcolm Butler, and WR A.J. Green. Their major losses were CB Patrick Peterson, RB Kenyan Drake, WR Larry Fitzgerald, and Edge Haason Reddick. Their major player returning from injury was DE Chandler Jones and their top draft picks were LB Zaven Collins and WR Rondale Moore.
Despite the great number of changes, we will only take 3 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the addition of Rodney Hudson, the loss of Patrick Peterson, and drafting Zaven Collins.
#1 — For the past couple seasons, Hudson has been a cornerstone for the Las Vegas Raiders as one of the best offensive lineman in the NFL. Due to acquiring him, the Cardinals have set themselves up to have a dominant pass attack due to more protection and a much improved rushing attack. Therefore, I decrease their pressure percentage allowed by 4% and increase their yards before contact by 0.4 per game.
#2 — One constant for the Cardinals over the last half decade has been CB Patrick Peterson. Having been one of the best defensive players during that time period, his loss is likely to hurt the Cardinals greatly. Given all of the other great receivers in their division, including DK Metcalf, Robert Woods, and Brandon Aiyuk to name a few, the Cardinals are bound to regress defensively through the air. Therefore, I increase their passing yards allowed by 25 each game.
#3 — Lastly, the Cardinals have much improved their defense by drafting the versatile and energetic Zaven Collins. He will immediately slot into their defense and be a great supplement to established star Chandler Jones. Therefore, I decrease their yards after contact allowed by 0.5 each game and increase their pressure percentage by 3% each game.
The Tennessee Titans’ major additions were Edge Bud Dupree, DL Denico Autry, CB Janoris Jenkin, and WR Julio Jones. Their major losses were TE Jonnu Smith, WR Corey Davis, CB Malcolm Butler, CB Adoree' Jackson, Edge Jadeveon Clowney, and S Kenny Vaccaro. Their major player returning from injury was OT Taylor Lewan. The Titans’ top draft pick was CB Caleb Farley.
Out of all of these moves, we will take 3 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the additions to the defensive line, the return of Taylor Lewan to the offensive line, and the addition of Julio Jones to the offense.
#1 — The additions of Dupree and Autry means that the Titans will be able to improve their previously bottom-tier pass rush. Both are coming off of great seasons with their past teams, and are bound to provide an immediate impact to a team with no current resemblance of a pass rush. Therefore, I increase their pressure percentage generated by 6% every game.
#2 — The return of Taylor Lewan for the Titans means that they are even better at doing what they do best, running the football. Before he got injured, Lewan was the Titans’ top offensive lineman and a big part of why Derrick Henry was able to be so dominant. Considering that the Titans’ offensive line still allowed Henry to be the league’s top rusher last year, Lewan will only add to Henry and the run game’s totals. Therefore, I increase the Titans’ yards before contact by .5 every game and decrease their pressure percentage allowed by 4% each game.
#3 — Late into the offseason, the Titans were able to trade for top wide receiver Julio Jones. After losing their number 2 wide receiver Corey Davis earlier in the offseason, Jones’ addition is even more valuable as the Titans now have two number 1 wide receivers in Jones and AJ Brown. However, due to the losses of Davis and Jonnu Smith, the Titans’ offense hasn’t improved as much as it may seem. Therefore, I only increase the Titans’ receiving yards by 15 each game.
Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Arizona will win with the percentages being around 57.1% for Arizona and 42.9% for Tennessee after weighting.
Conclusion
Despite their many high profile offseason additions, the Tennessee Titans still appear to be a weaker team than the Arizona Cardinals. Being in the NFC West with the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, and Los Angeles Rams, the odds are stacked against the Cardinals as their hopes of making the playoffs aren’t very high. However, given the changes they made in the offseason, there is a real chance that they are able to knock off some of the teams I’ve mentioned and ultimately make the playoffs behind the Kyler Murray to Deandre Hopkins connection, their great pass protection, and a replenished linebacking core.
SportsTastic Model Predicted Winner:
Arizona Cardinals
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