Game Date: September 12, 2021
Detailed Analysis
Matchup-specific Preview
This article previews the September 12th, NFL Week 1 matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Kansas City Chiefs on CBS. This matchup is interesting because it matches up the Browns’ dominant rushing attack against the Chiefs’ unstoppable passing game. The Browns are led by running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, that when combined with the league’s #1 offensive line, are able to outdo any defense they could be faced with. Moreover, their above-average defensive line led by superstar Myles Garrett has allowed them to stay close in games against other top offenses. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs have arguably the best offense in football, led by a trio of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill. Each is considered to be at the top of their respective positions and have dominated during their last 3 seasons together. Kansas City is considered by most to be better ever so slightly, but if we can use their past matchups as an indication, this game will likely be one of the best matchups in Week 1. Last year, these 2 teams met in the AFC and the Chiefs narrowly beat the Browns by a score of 22-17. I expect a similar outcome, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Browns manage to win this game behind their dominant run game.
First round of data analysis
The figure below shows that Cleveland has a 51% chance of winning this matchup due to their rushing attack and overpowering offensive line. Some consider the Browns’ starting running back Nick Chubb to be the best pure rusher in the NFL, and with the best Oline in the league ahead of him, the Browns are predicted to win narrowly against the reigning AFC champions. However, due to Kansas City’s explosive passing game and offensive line, they are only marginally behind the Browns in terms of win percentage. Despite being the favorite by most, last year’s raw stats prove that the Cleveland Browns were statistically better last season than the Kansas City Chiefs.
I look at these 4 position groups and simulate who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Cleveland will win with the percentages being around 51% for Cleveland and 49% for Kansas City after weighting.
Now that we've looked at 2020 data, I am now going to analyze the changes to each of these teams’ rosters that have happened over the last 6 months.
Second round of data analysis
The figure below shows that Kansas City has a 50.4% chance of winning this matchup because of their replenished offensive line. Prior to making any changes, their offensive line was already projected to outdo Cleveland’s defensive line in terms of pressure percentage. However, with major additions to their offensive line, the Chiefs have managed to just edge out the Browns in my prediction. Although the Browns managed to change the tides of their secondary’s matchup against Chiefs’ wide receivers, Kansas City gained a big advantage at the line of scrimmage.
I looked at the same 4 position groups and simulated who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. The major change I made was that I had my model take into account players lost and gained over the offseason, injured players that are now returning, and the top draft picks made by each team. Each of these offseason changes is listed below:
The Cleveland Browns’ major additions were CB Troy Hill, S John Johnson III, LB Anthony Walker Jr., Edge Takkarist McKinley, and DT Malik Jackson. Their major losses were OT Kendall Lamm, CB Terrance Mitchell, DT Larry Ogunjobi, and CB Kevin Johnson. Their best injured player was WR Odell Beckham Jr. and their top draft picks were CB Greg Newsome II and LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.
We will take 2 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the renovations to the secondary and the return of Odell Beckham Jr..
#1 — Because one of the few weak spots for the Browns last year was the secondary, they made sure to spend big to improve the back-half of their defense. Although they lost players like Mitchell and K Johnson, they made up for this with the acquisitions of Hill, J Johnson III, and Newsome II. Therefore, I decrease yards allowed by 25 each game.
#2 — When he joined the Browns prior to last year, OBJ was meant to be the team’s clear-cut #1 wide receiver and make their passing attack a threat again. Since the signing, he hasn’t played up to his potential and has been injured for a good chunk of time. Despite these setbacks, those who have seen him this year claim that he is as good as when he entered Cleveland. Due to this and his general command on defensive players while he is on the field, I increase receiving yards per game by 15.
The Kansas City Chiefs’ major additions were G Joe Thuney, G Kyle Long, OL Andrew Wylie, and DT Jarran Reed. Their major losses were OT Eric Fisher, OT Mitchell Schwartz, RB Damien Williams, RB Anthony Sherman, WR Sammy Watkins, and DL Tanoh Kpassagnon. Their best player returning from a covid holdout is OL Dr. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif. The Chiefs’ top draft picks were LB Nick Bolton, Oklahoma C Creed Humphrey.
Out of all of these moves, we will take 2 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the major changes to the offensive line and the loss of Sammy Watkins.
#1 — After getting pummelled in the Super Bowl by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' constant defensive penetration, the Chiefs went into the offseason with one goal in mind, improving their Oline. With the return of practicing doctor Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and the additions of Joe Thuney, Kyle Long, and Andrew Wylie, the Chiefs’ line has improved drastically. Therefore, I decrease the pressure percentage by 7% each game.
#2 — One devastating hit to the Chiefs this offseason has been losing Sammy Watkins. Even though he never entirely lived up to the hype he got when entering Kansas City, he proved to be the best receiver imaginable alongside speedsters such as Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman. With his release, the Chiefs’ pass game is likely to regress slightly and I decrease their receiving yards by 15 each game.
Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Kansas City will win with the percentages being around 50.4% for Kansas City and 49.5% for Cleveland after weighting.
Conclusion
Due to their new and improved offensive line, the Kansas City Chiefs will manage to narrowly edge out the Cleveland Browns in their week 1 matchup that will remind us of their meeting in last season’s playoffs. The Chiefs are favorites in most people’s eyes, but as we can see, a win for them will take more than expected. Given that neither team truly has a huge advantage, this game is likely to be decided in the final few minutes by quarterback play, as that is what truly takes over in the clutch in the National Football League. Given that the Chiefs have one of the best QB talents of all time in Patrick Mahomes, a narrow win for the Chiefs makes sense as it is foolish to count out Mahomes given his already stacked resume. However, if the Browns do want to have a chance at winning, they will need to find success running the ball early in order to wear down the Chiefs’ defense by the 4th quarter, allowing them to potentially take the lead late in the game and hold on to it until time runs out.
SportsTastic Model Predicted Winner:
Kansas City Chiefs
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