Game Date: September 9, 2021
Detailed Analysis
Matchup-specific Preview
This article previews the September 9th, NFL Week 1 match-up between the Dallas Cowboys and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on NBC Sports. This is an intriguing match-up because of Tampa Bay’s retainment of their Super Bowl winning roster and Dallas’ important players returning from injuries. Tampa Bay’s main off-season move was resigning their 2020-2021 roster. They were able to get back all of their defensive and offensive starters from last year, putting them in a prime position to repeat as Superbowl champions. Dallas’ best player returning from injury is Dak Prescott. He started the 2020-2021 NFL season red-hot, posting nearly 2000 passing yards combined in the 5 games he was healthy. Although Tampa Bay is considered by most to be a better team given that they just won the Superbowl, Dallas’ high-powered offense led by Prescott is likely to keep the Cowboys in this game and will potentially have them poised to defeat the reigning champions.
First round of data analysis
The figure below shows that Tampa Bay has a 57.7% chance of winning this matchup due to their dominant defensive groups. Led by a linebacking core of Devin White and Lavonte David, Tampa Bay’s ability to shut down passing and running lanes is like no other team in the NFL. Paired with their dominant secondary, opposing teams often have trouble throwing the ball, allowing White and David to stack the box and become pass rushers as well, giving them a massive advantage in the pressure percentage department as they have a very high pressure rate.
I look at these 4 position groups and simulate who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Tampa Bay will win with the percentages being around 58% for Tampa Bay and 42% for Dallas after weighting.
Now that we've looked at 2020 data, I am now going to analyze the changes to each of these teams’ rosters that have happened over the last 6 months.
Second round of data analysis
The figure below shows that Tampa Bay has a 57.1% chance of winning this matchup due to their unbeatable defensive core. With the return of all of their starters and the drafting of LB Joe Tyron, the Buccaneers will have an even better defense than they did last year, catapulting them into the immediate talks to be a Superbowl favorite for the upcoming year.
I looked at the same 4 position groups and simulated who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. The major change I made was that I had my model take into account players lost and gained over the offseason, injured players that are now returning, and the top draft picks made by each team. Each of these offseason changes is listed below:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn’t have any major additions or losses this offseason, but their biggest positive was bringing all 22 starters back for this upcoming season. Having already proven that their roster has enough to win a Superbowl, this is all the Buccaneers had to do in order to have a good offseason. They had no key players returning from injury and their first-round draft pick was LB Joe Tyron.
Due to the lack of additions/losses, we will take 2 major changes into our revised model. These changes include Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski playing their first full seasons as Buccaneers and drafting Tyron with the 32nd pick in the NFL Draft.
#1 — Getting Brown and Gronkowski will mean that the Buccaneers’ offense will be even more dynamic than before, if that is even possible. Their presence on the field has been unmatched for years, and even if they don’t return to their old forms, they will be reliable targets for Superbowl MVP Tom Brady down the stretch of close games against other top teams. Therefore, I add 25 receiving yards to every game.
#2 — The addition of Joe Tyron as a linebacker means that Tampa Bay’s dominant defensive group will be even better while closing out games. White, David, and Jason Pierre-Paul will all be more rested by the ends of games, allowing them to make more plays. Moreover, Tyron is a great player himself and will likely help the Buccaneers improve their already great pass rush. Therefore, I decrease their yards after contact allowed by 0.3 for each game and increase their pressure percentage by 3% each game.
The Dallas Cowboys’ major additions were S Keanu Neal and DB Damontae Kazee. Their major losses were S Xavier Woods and CB Chidobe Awuzie. Their major players returning from injury were Dak Prescott, OL Tyron Smith, and OL La'el Collins. The Cowboys’ top draft picks were LB Micah Parsons and CB Kelvin Joseph.
Out of these moves, we will consider the 3 most important. These include the return of Prescott, Smith, and Collins to the offense, the new and improved secondary, and the addition of Parsons through the draft.
#1 — The injury returns of Prescott, Smith, and Collins mean that the Cowboys’ offense will return to being what it was in the first few weeks of last season. Prescott has superior mobility to Andy Dalton, the QB who started in his place last year, and with the returns of 2 Offensive Linemen, Dallas’ pressure percentage allowed will decrease by 5% per game. Prescott’s addition also means that the Cowboys will be much more efficient through the air, so I increase their receiving yards by 35 each game.
#2 — The combination of adding Neal, Kazee, and Joseph along with losing Woods and Awuzie means that the Cowboys will have a new look defensive secondary. Although Woods and Awuzie were great players, Neal, Kazee, and Joseph will be able to slide into their places nicely and build upon last season’s defensive improvements. Thus, I decrease receiving yards allowed per game by 15.
#3 — Lastly, the addition of Micah Parsons with the 12th pick in the NFL Draft brings the Cowboys’ defensive revamp to a whole new level. He is a tenacious LB with great instincts and is guaranteed to benefit the Cowboys. Due to his ability to stop the run game, I decrease Dallas’ yards before contact allowed by 0.3 every game.
Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Tampa Bay will win with the percentages being around 57.1% for Tampa Bay and 42.9% for Dallas after weighting.
Conclusion
Despite many players returning from injuries and a defensive makeover, the Dallas Cowboys still appear to be a weaker team than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Just a few months removed from their Super Bowl win, the Buccaneers will need to refocus and play to their strengths. Based on comparing the second round of analysis with the first, I predict that Tampa Bay will win this game and get off to a dominant start this season. However, the Cowboys’ improved offense will keep them in the game and the Buccaneers will not have as easy of a time as expected dissecting the Cowboys’ defense. This game is likely going to go down the wire and lead to the Tom Brady magic many of us love to hate.
SportsTastic Model Predicted Winner
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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