Game Day: September 12, 2021
Detailed Analysis
Matchup-specific Preview
This article previews the September 12th, NFL Week 1 matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Detroit Lions on Fox Sports. This is an intriguing matchup because of Detroit’s new additions over the offseason and San Francisco’s plethora of players returning from injuries last season. Detroit’s main offseason move was a QB swap. They gave Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams and got Jared Goff back. San Francisco’s best player returning from injury is Nick Bosa. He was one of the best Defensive Linemen during the 2019-2020 season and will look to return to his first-year form. Although San Francisco is considered by most to be a better team, the many changes that each team has faced in the last season could result in this game being much more unpredictable than anticipated. First round of data analysis The figure below shows that San Francisco has a 55.9% chance of winning this matchup due to their dominant linebacker group. Led by All-Pro Fred Warner, San Francisco’s ability to dominate at the second level gives them the chance to shut down the Lions’ offense, winning them the game based on our model.
I look at these 4 position groups and simulate who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict SF will win with the percentages being around 56% for SF and 44% for Detroit after weighting. Now that we’ve looked at 2020 data, I am now going to analyze the changes to each of these teams’ rosters that have happened over the last 6 months. Second round of data analysis The figure below shows that San Francisco has a 62.86% chance of winning this matchup due to their unbeatable combination of Wide Receivers and Quarterbacks. With the return of all-around Tight End George Kittle, #1 WR Deebo Samuel, and starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers will have a much-improved passing attack that will remind us of their dominant season throwing the ball during their super bowl run in 2020.
I looked at the same 4 position groups and simulated who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. The major change I made was that I had my model take into account players lost and gained over the offseason, injured players that are now returning, and the top 3 draft picks made by each team. Each of these offseason changes is listed below:
The Detroit Lions’ major additions were QB Jared Goff, RB Jamaal Williams, WR Tyrell Williams, WR Breshad Perriman, DT Michael Brockers, CB Quinton Dunbar. Their major losses were QB Matthew Stafford, WR Kenny Golladay, WR Marvin Jones Jr., WR Jamal Agnew, TE Jesse James, DT Danny Shelton, LB Jarrad Davis, CB Desmond Trufant, and CB Justin Coleman. They had no key players returning from injury and their top 3 draft picks were OL Penei Sewell, DT Levi Onwuzurike, and DT Alim McNeill.
Despite all of these additions, we will only take 3 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the QB swap where they lost Matthew Stafford and gained Jared Goff, the addition of Quentin Dunbar, and drafting Penei Sewell with the 7th pick in the NFL Draft.
#1 — The change in quarterback from Stafford to Goff means that Detroit no longer has the ability to lean on their quarterback to change games for them. Goff hasn’t lived up to expectations ever since he was taken with the first pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Due to Goff’s arm being weaker and less accurate than Stafford’s arm, I decrease Detroit’s receiving yards by 30 yards every game. Goff is also considerably less mobile than Stafford, so I increase Detroit’s O-line pressure percentage allowed by 3%.
#2 — After serving as the Lions’ #1 WR for the entirety of the 2020-2021 season, a big negative for the Lions this offseason has been the loss of Kenny Golladay. Due to his unmatched ability to create big plays and kickstart their offense, I reduce Detroit’s receiving yards gained by 25 yards every game.
#3 — By adding Offensive Lineman Penei Sewell with the 7th pick in this year’s NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions improved their pass protection drastically. Immediately slotting into their starting lineup, Sewell will help the Lions greatly. Therefore, I decrease Detroit’s O-line pressure percentage allowed by 6% every game.
The San Francisco 49ers’ major additions were C Alex Mack and Edge Samson Ebukam. Their major losses were Edge Kerry Hyder Jr., CB Ahkello Witherspoon, RB Tevin Coleman, WR Kendrick Bourne, DL Solomon Thomas, and CB Richard Sherman. Their major players returning from injury were TE George Kittle, DL Nick Bosa, QB Jimmy Garrapolo, RB Raheem Mostert, and WR Deebo Samuel. The 49ers’ top 3 draft picks were QB Trey Lance, OL Austin Banks, and RB Trey Sermon.
Out of all of these moves, we will take 3 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the return of Nick Bosa, the revamped 49ers offense due to injury returns, and the loss of Richard Sherman.
#1 — With Nick Bosa returning from an injury-riddled season, San Francisco’s Defensive Line should be much improved. I believe that we will return to his 2019-2020 near DPOY state and help San Francisco get back to its defensive dominance by freeing up his fellow linemen. Thus, I increase San Francisco's pressure percentage generated by 7% every game. I also decrease their yards before contact allowed by 0.3 yards for each game due to Bosa’s interior presence.
#2 — San Francisco’s offense has also improved this offseason with the injury returns of Garoppolo, Kittle, and Samuel. On top of this, the 49ers were able to draft Trey Lance with the 3rd overall pick. Due to this combination of injury returns and draft picks, I increase San Francisco’s receiving yards by 55 yards per game. Also, because Lance and Garoppolo are relatively mobile QBs, I decrease San Francisco’s O-line pressure percentage allowed by 3%.
#3 — The loss of Richard Sherman was devastating for the 49ers. Although he has regressed in recent years, he has been vital in stopping the elite passing offenses of every other team in the NFC West division. His loss will mean that the 49ers will have a tougher time stopping the likes of DeAndre Hopkins, DK Metcalf, along with many others. Therefore, I increase San Francisco’s receiving yards allowed by 30 yards every game. Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict SF will win with the percentages being around 62.9% for SF and 37.1% for Detroit after weighting. Conclusion Despite making many quality offseason additions to enhance their weak spots, the Detroit Lions still appear to be a weaker team than the San Francisco 49ers. Nearly two years removed from their Super Bowl run in the 2019-2020 season, the 49ers look to be a very strong team next year due to their many stars returning from injuries. Based on comparing the second round of analysis with the first, I predict that San Francisco will win this game and get off to a good start this season. However, this game will be closer than most people expect it to be and the Lions will be in contention until the very end.
SportsTastic Model Predicted Winner San Francisco 49ers
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