Game Date: September 20, 2021
Detailed Analysis
Matchup-specific Preview
This article previews the September 19th, NFL Week 2 matchup between the Detroit Lions (0-1) and the Green Bay Packers (0-1) on NBC. This matchup is interesting because it matches up the Lions and their new offense against a Packers team that is looking to rebound after an abysmal week 1 loss. Despite both team’s losing in their first week, they couldn’t be further apart in reality. Last season, the Packers made the NFC Championship game, and after a heartbreaking loss, were ready to start this season with a bang. On the other hand, the Lions had an awful 2020-2021 season and lost their franchise’s only bright spot in recent memory, Matthew Stafford. Therefore, most assumed that this week 2 matchup would be over before it could begin. However, since then, the Packers got stomped by the New Orleans Saints in a massive upset and Jared Goff nearly led the Lions to a comeback win over the San Francisco 49ers. Therefore, this game is not as easy to predict as it may seem and no outcome seems impossible.
First round of data analysis
The figure below shows that Green Bay has a 58% chance of winning this matchup due to their overpowering offensive line. Last year, they were rated as the 2nd best unit in all of football and this is likely why they win this category by such a wide margin. Moreover, the Lions were ranked as the 3rd worst defensive line last year, so the percentage splits make a lot of sense. Given that a lot of Green Bay’s offense is based on pass protection and allowing MVP Aaron Rodgers to stay in the pocket and deliver passes, there is no question that the Packers would win this game if last year’s stats were all that mattered.
I look at these 4 position groups and simulate who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Green Bay will win with the percentages being around 58% for Green Bay and 41.9% for Detroit after weighting.
Now that we've looked at 2020 data, I am now going to analyze the changes to each of these teams’ roster that have happened over the last 6 months.
Second round of data analysis
The figure below shows that Green Bay has a 54.6% chance of winning this matchup. This is due to their worsened offensive line and Detroit’s improved offensive line. Green Bay has been one of the best offensive lines over the last few years due to arguably the best center in the league, Corey Linsley. However, Linsley is no longer with the team and this means that their offensive line may become average once again. On the other side, the Lions drafted OL Penei Sewell with the 7th pick in the NFL draft and he has already helped in bolstering their offensive line. These changes have resulted in the likelihood of Green Bay winning falling a bit as pass protection remains essential to both teams and the league as a whole.
I looked at the same 4 position groups and simulated who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. The major change I made was that I had my model take into account players lost and gained over the offseason, injured players that are now returning, and the top draft picks made by each team. Each of these offseason changes are listed below:
The Detroit Lions’ major additions were QB Jared Goff, RB Jamaal Williams, WR Tyrell Williams, WR Breshad Perriman, DT Michael Brockers, CB Quinton Dunbar. Their major losses were QB Matthew Stafford, WR Kenny Golladay, WR Marvin Jones Jr., WR Jamal Agnew, TE Jesse James, DT Danny Shelton, LB Jarrad Davis, CB Desmond Trufant, and CB Justin Coleman. They had no key players returning from injury and their top 3 draft picks were OL Penei Sewell, DT Levi Onwuzurike, and DT Alim McNeill.
Despite all of these additions, we will only take 3 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the QB swap where they lost Matthew Stafford and gained Jared Goff, the addition of Quentin Dunbar, and drafting Penei Sewell with the 7th pick in the NFL Draft.
#1 — The change in quarterback from Stafford to Goff means that Detroit no longer has the ability to lean on their quarterback to change games for them. Goff hasn’t lived up to expectations ever since he was taken with the first pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Due to Goff’s arm being weaker and less accurate than Stafford’s arm, I decrease Detroit’s receiving yards by 30 yards every game. Goff is also considerably less mobile than Stafford, so I increase Detroit’s O-line pressure percentage allowed by 3%.
#2 — After serving as the Lions’ #1 WR for the entirety of the 2020-2021 season, a big negative for the Lions this offseason has been the loss of Kenny Golladay. Due to his unmatched ability to create big plays and kickstart their offense, I reduce Detroit’s receiving yards gained by 25 yards every game.
#3 — By adding Offensive Lineman Penei Sewell with the 7th pick in this year’s NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions improved their pass protection drastically. Immediately slotting into their starting lineup, Sewell will help the Lions greatly. Therefore, I decrease Detroit’s O-line pressure percentage allowed by 6% every game.
The Green Bay Packers’ didn’t have any major additions this offseason. Their major losses were RB Jamaal Williams, OT Rick Wagner, C Corey Linsley, LB Christian Kirksey, and CB Tramon Williams. They don’t have a standout player returning from injury and their top draft pick was CB Eric Stokes.
Out of all of these moves, we will take 2 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the loss of Jamaal Williams and the loss of Corey Linsley.
#1 — Despite being the second RB behind Aaron Jones, Jamal Williams saw a lot of playing time as a change-of-pace back. Therefore, without him in their lineup, they will suffer a drop in yards before and after contact. Therefore, I decrease their values in these stats by 0.2 each week. Williams was also a great receiving threat when in the backfield, so I reduce the Packers’ receiving yards by 10 per game.
#2 — This loss of long-time starting center Corey Linsley means that the Packers’ offensive line and pass protection will worsen. Given that Linsley and QB Aaron Rodgers have played together for a long time and know each other so well, regression in pass protection is due to happen. Therefore, I increase pressure percentage allowed by 6 every game.
Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Green Bay will win with the percentages being around 54.6% for Green Bay and 45.3% for Detroit after weighting.
Conclusion
Despite getting off to a slow start this season, the Green Bay Packers will rebound in week 2 and beat the Detroit Lions. Behind their dominant offensive line, the Packers and QB Aaron Rodgers will have all the time they need to matriculate the ball down the field, as former coach Hank Stram used to say. Even though the Lions were able to put up a valiant effort against the 49ers last week, I expect this game to be much earlier for them as the Packers will be in revenge mode, looking to disprove all the critics that are already claiming that they won’t be a powerhouse this year.
Sportstastic Predicted Winner
Green Bay Packers
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