Game Date: September 12, 2021
Detailed Analysis
Matchup-specific Preview
This article previews the September 12th, NFL Week 1 match-up between the Chicago Bears and the Los Angeles Rams on NBC Sports. This is an intriguing match-up because of both teams’ notable off-season QB swaps. Chicago’s QB was previously Mitchell Tribusky, but now they are looking to start with Andy Dalton and play newly drafted Justin Fields partway through the season. Fields is the hope for much of Chicago due to his dominance in college and more mobile play style. Los Angeles’s QB was previously Jared Goff, but now they have upgraded to Matthew Stafford. Stafford has superior arm strength and accuracy, making the Rams an immediate contender for the Superbowl. Although Los Angeles is considered by most to be a better team, this game will likely be very competitive as both teams have great defenses. In fact, in their last 3 match-ups, the average points scored per game has been just over 26 points per game combined between both teams.
First round of data analysis
The figure below shows that Los Angeles has a 55.6% chance of winning this matchup due to their shutdown secondary and dominant front 4. Led by the league’s top cornerback Jalen Ramsey and the best defensive player, defensive tackle Aaron Donald, the Rams are likely to dominate this game defensively. Given how the last few matchups between these teams have been low-scoring affairs, this may be all that the Rams. Paired with the fact that their revamped offense now features Matthew Stafford at the helm, the Rams are rightfully favored in this game.
I look at these 4 position groups and simulate who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Los Angeles will win with the percentages being around 56% for Los Angeles and 44% for Chicago after weighting.
Now that we've looked at 2020 data, I am now going to analyze the changes to each of these teams’ rosters that have happened over the last 6 months.
Second round of data analysis
The figure below shows that Los Angeles has a 55% chance of winning this matchup due to their dominant pass protective offensive line. With the return of Andrew Whitworth, the Rams offensive line gets significantly better with veteran leadership. Moreover, with the arrival of Matthew Stafford, the offensive line indirectly gets better as Stafford is more mobile and makes decisions quicker than Goff. Therefore, despite Chicago’s great pass rush led by 1x Defensive Player of the Year Kahlil Mack, the Rams will still dominate during passing plays.
I looked at the same 4 position groups and simulated who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. The major change I made was that I had my model take into account players lost and gained over the offseason, injured players that are now returning, and the top draft picks made by each team. Each of these offseason changes is listed below:
The Chicago Bears’ major additions were QB Andy Dalton, RB Damien Williams, Edge Jeremiah Attaochu, and CB Desmond Trufant. Their major losses were QB Mitchell Trubisky, DL Roy Robertson-Harris, and CB Kyle Fuller. Their major player returning from injury was RB Tarik Cohen and their top draft pick was QB Justin Fields.
We will take 3 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the QB swap from Trubisky to Dalton/Fields, the loss of number 1 CB Kyle Fuller, and the return of dynamic playmaker Tarik Cohen.
#1 — Switching from Mitchell Trubisky to the combination of Dalton/Fields means that the Bears will likely have a much more accurate QB starting. Therefore, I increase the receiving yards by 30 each game. Also, given that Fields will likely start soon because he is a rookie, I also factor in his great mobility and decrease the pressure percentage allowed by 4% each game.
#2 — Last year, the Bears’ top cornerback was Kyle Fuller. Having to let him go due to a lack of salary space, Chicago now lacks a true #1 cornerback. Therefore, I increase the amount of receiving yards allowed by 25 yards per game.
#3 — Lastly, Tarik Cohen’s return from injury means that the Bears will get back a versatile weapon. Despite being a running back, he is a very dynamic receiver as well. Therefore, I increase their receiving yards per game by 10. Also, due to his playmaking ability as a running back, I increase their yards after contact by 0.5 per game.
The Los Angeles Rams’ major additions were QB Matthew Stafford and WR DeSean Jackson. Their major losses were QB Jared Goff, S John Johnson III, CB Troy Hill, Edge Samson Ebukam, TE Gerald Everett, RB Malcolm Brown, DE Morgan Fox, WR Josh Reynolds, G/C Austin Blythe. Their major player returning from injury was OT Andrew Whitworth. The Rams’ top draft pick was WR Tutu Atwell.
Out of all of these moves, we will take 3 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the QB swap from Goff to Stafford, the loss of starters in the secondary, and the return of Andrew Whitworth.
#1 — The change in quarterback from Goff to Stafford means that Los Angeles now has a dynamic and game-changing QB at its helm. Stafford has a rocket of an arm and his talent has long been overlooked due to his team’s situation in Detroit. Moreover, he has great mobility for a QB with average speed and is very durable. Now that he has a legitimate team he can win with, I expect him to have a breakout season and do great things with the Rams. Therefore, I increase their receiving yards by 30 each game and decrease pressure percentage allowed by 4% every game.
#2 — The major weak point of the Rams’ offseason has been negotiating with their secondary. Last year, they had one of if not the best secondaries in the NFL, led by Jalen Ramsey. Now, even though Ramsey remains, many of the players that played alongside him such as Troy Hill and John Johnson are gone. Even though Ramsey will do fine covering his man, I expect the rest of the secondary to regress. Therefore, I increase receiving yards allowed by 25 each game.
#3 — Lastly, the return of veteran tackle Andrew Whitworth is bound to help Stafford get acclimated to the Rams’ offense. Having played in the league for so long, Whitworth is still a great player despite older age and lesser mobility. Therefore, I decrease the pressure percentage allowed by 3% every game.
Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Chicago will win with the percentages being around 45% for Chicago and 55% for Los Angeles after weighting.
Conclusion
Despite their many player losses over the off-season, the Los Angeles Rams are still projected to beat the Chicago Bears in a crucial week 1 match-up. Although week 1 isn’t always considered too important, this game likely will be as both of these teams are likely to be vying for wild card spots by the end of the year. However, even though the Rams are predicted to win, the Bears still have the perfect makeup to cause an upset. In the case that their rookie QB Justin Fields is able to come in, the Bears will have an energized and ready offense that has the potential to will itself to victory, even against a superior Rams team.
SportsTastic Model Predicted Winner:
Los Angeles Rams
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