Game Date: September 19, 2021
Detailed Analysis
Matchup-specific Preview
This article previews the September 19th, NFL Week 2 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens on NBC. This matchup is interesting because it matches up the Ravens and their run heavy offense led by Lamar Jackson against the Chiefs and their pass happy offense led by Patrick Mahomes. Both quarterbacks are former MVPs and have led their teams to extremely successful seasons for the past couple years. This game will be largely dependent on the Ravens’ ability to establish the running game. Their top 3 RBs are injured, but with Jackson, they should still be very successful on the ground. However, if they can’t get things going against Kansas City’s interior, the Chiefs will be able to run away with the game due to their high-powered offense led by the receiving tandem of TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill.
First round of data analysis
The figure below shows that Kansas City has a 50.2% chance of winning this matchup due to their dominant matchup against Baltimore’s receivers. This is more due to a lack of passing production from Baltimore, as they were one of the most run-based teams in the league last year, meaning that their receivers didn’t see much work. However, the percentages manage to remain close because of exactly this, as the Ravens’ running backs manage to blow away the chiefs in both the yards before carry and yards after carry categories. Therefore, close percentages make sense as both teams are quite evenly matched and cancel each others’ strengths out with different strengths of their own.
I look at these 4 position groups and simulate who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Kansas City will win with the percentages being around 50.2% for Kansas City and 49.8% for Baltimore after weighting.
Now that we've looked at 2020 data, I am now going to analyze the changes to each of these teams’ roster that have happened over the last 6 months.
Second round of data analysis
The figure below shows that Kansas City has a 56.2% chance of winning this matchup because of their replenished offensive line and Baltimore’s weakened running game. Over the offseason, the Chiefs were able to make major additions to their offensive line after an abysmal showing in last year’s superbowl. Moreover, their starting lineman from 2 years ago, Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, is returning this season after holding out last season due to his second profession of being a doctor. Such changes allow for the Chiefs to gain a massive advantage at the line of scrimmage. Moreover, injuries have depleted the Ravens’ running game, and the positional group is set to do worse in yards before/after carry as expected.
I looked at the same 4 position groups and simulated who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. The major change I made was that I had my model take into account players lost and gained over the offseason, injured players that are now returning, and the top draft picks made by each team. Each of these offseason changes are listed below:
The Baltimore Ravens’ major additions were WR Sammy Watkins and G Kevin Zeitler. Their major losses were Edge Matt Judon, Edge Yannick Ngakoue, RB Mark Ingram, C Matt Skura, WR Willie Snead IV, and G Marshal Yanda. Since the start of the season, the Ravens’ top 3 RBs JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill got injured as well as their top CB, Marcus Peters. Their top draft picks were WR Rashod Bateman and LB Odafe Oweh.
We will take 3 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the additions of Watkins and Bateman to the receiving core, the loss of Yannick Ngakoue, and the addition of Kevin Zeitler.
#1 — Despite their strong running game over the past years, the Ravens offense has never been top notch due to a mostly invisible passing game. Prior to this year, their number 1 target was speedster Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown. With the additions of Watkins and Bateman, the Ravens are getting big body wide receivers that share higher target shares. Therefore, I increase their receiving yards per game by 25.
#2 — Ever since he entered the NFL, Yannick Ngakoue has been superb at pass rushing. Although his run game penetration still isn’t very good, he is a top tier defensive lineman in terms of his pressures on passing plays. With his loss, the Ravens are losing a great interior presence that can wreak havoc on games. Thus, I decrease their pressure percentage by 5%.
#3 — The addition of Kevin Zeitler means that the Ravens will be able to replace their losses on the offensive line with a consistent starter in Zeitler. Although he has regressed in recent years, he will likely have more of an opportunity to return back to his normal self as the Baltimore offensive line is already strong. Therefore, I decrease Baltimore’s pressure percentage allowed by 3% each game and increase their yards before contact by 0.3 yards per game.
#4/5 — Lastly, the Ravens’ numerous early season injuries have decimated their lineup. Due to the losses of their top 3 RBs, I decrease their yards before and after contact by 0.4 each game. Also, due to the loss of Marcus Peters, I increase their receiving yards allowed by 15 per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs’ major additions were G Joe Thuney, G Kyle Long, OL Andrew Wylie, and DT Jarran Reed. Their major losses were OT Eric Fisher, OT Mitchell Schwartz, RB Damien Williams, RB Anthony Sherman, WR Sammy Watkins, and DL Tanoh Kpassagnon. Their best player returning from a covid holdout is OL Dr. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif. The Chiefs’ top draft picks were LB Nick Bolton, Oklahoma C Creed Humphrey.
Out of all of these moves, we will take 2 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the major changes to the offensive line and the loss of Sammy Watkins.
#1 — After getting pummelled in the Super Bowl by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' constant defensive penetration, the Chiefs went into the offseason with one goal in mind, improving their Oline. With the return of practicing doctor Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and the additions of Joe Thuney, Kyle Long, and Andrew Wylie, the Chiefs’ line has improved drastically. Therefore, I decrease the pressure percentage by 7% each game.
#2 — One devastating hit to the Chiefs this offseason has been losing Sammy Watkins. Even though he never entirely lived up to the hype he got when entering Kansas City, he proved to be the best receiver imaginable alongside speedsters such as Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman. With his release, the Chiefs’ pass game is likely to regress slightly and I decrease their receiving yards by 15 each game.
Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Kansas City will win with the percentages being around 56.2% for Kansas City and 43.7% for Baltimore after weighting.
Conclusion
Due to their new and improved offensive line, the Kansas City Chiefs will manage to beat out the Baltimore Ravens in their week 1 matchup. Despite these two teams being some of the best over the last few seasons, Baltimore has sustained major injuries that will greatly affect their 2021-2022 campaign. With the continued dominance of the Chiefs, it will be hard to imagine any team beating them due to their improvements to the Offensive line and eternally consistent passing game. Even though these two teams have been juggernauts of the league in the past, I don’t expect that this will be a back and forth game, with my projection being that the Chiefs will take a commanding lead in the 3rd quarter and never look back after.
Sportstastic Model Winner
Kansas City Chiefs
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