Week 2: New York Giants at Washington Football Team

Game Date: September 16, 2021

Detailed Analysis

Matchup-specific Preview This article previews the September 16th, NFL Week 2 matchup between the Washington Football Team (0-1) and the New York Giants (0-1) on NBC. This matchup is interesting because it features two teams that lost their opener and are looking to rebound with a week 2 win. Moreover, the Football Team and the Giants are both from the NFC East and have a long history, making the otherwise bland game quite exciting. The biggest storylines heading into this game are the loss of Washington QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and the slow start for the Giants offense despite RB Saquon Barkley’s return. Washington’s defense is considered to be one of the top units in the league, and given that their starting QB is out, this game is likely to be a low-scoring affair. The Football Team scored 16 points last week while the Giants scored a mere 13. I expect a similar scoreline for this game given each team’s subpar week 1 performance. First round of data analysis The figure below shows that this game is truly a 50-50 based on each team’s stats from last season. They both have dominant secondaries when compared to each other’s receiving cores as well as dominant Dlines when compared to their opponent’s Olines. Moreover, when matching up the rushing yards before and after contact, we see that both team’s defenses win every matchup. This essentially states that both teams have good to great defenses while both offenses are subpar. Therefore, it makes sense that a game would be so close as neither team has a quantifiable advantage.

I look at these 4 position groups and simulate who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Washington will win with the percentages being around 50.1% for Washington and 49.9% for New York after weighting.

Now that we've looked at 2020 data, I am now going to analyze the changes to each of these teams’ rosters that have happened over the last 6 months. Second round of data analysis

The figure below shows that New York has a 52.7% chance after accounting for offseason changes. With the return of Saquon Barkley from injury and the re-signing of their entire defensive line, the Giants will be much more dynamic on offense while still remaining stout defensively. Moreover, Giants QB Daniel Jones will have more receivers to target and, with the addition of Kenny Golladay, a big-play machine to lob the ball up to when necessary. I looked at the same 4 position groups and simulated who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. The major change I made was that I had my model take into account players lost and gained over the offseason, injured players that are now returning, and the top draft picks made by each team. Each of these offseason changes is listed below: The Washington Football Team's major additions were QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Curtis Samuel, CB Darryl Roberts, WR Adam Humphries, C Tyler Larsen. Their major losses were CB Ronald Darby, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, CB Fabian Moreau. In Week 1, newly acquired starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was injured, and their top draft pick was LB Jamin Davis. We will take 2 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the additions of Curtis Samuel and the loss of Ronald Darby (We would’ve factored in the addition of Fitzpatrick, but his injury means that he won’t have an impact on the game and Taylor Heinicke, who started at times last year, will take over). #1 — Over the offseason, the Football Team acquired breakout WR Curtis Samuel. After a great showing as a gadget-type playmaker in the Carolina Panthers’ offense, Samuel will look to take a step up and become the WR2 of an offense for the first time in his career. Due to his great production last year, I increase Washington’s passing yards per game by 20.

#2 — Last year, Ronald Darby was a constant in the great Football Team defense as he played in and started all 16 games in the regular season. Now that he is gone, Washington will have trouble replacing him with an equally as consistent player. Therefore, I increase receiving yards allowed per game by 15. The New York Giants’ major additions were R Kenny Golladay, CB Adoree' Jackson, TE Kyle Rudolph, RB Devontae Booker, Edge Ifeadi Odenigbo, WR John Ross, QB Mike Glennon, DT Danny Shelton, LB Reggie Ragland, TE Kelvin Benjamin. Their major losses were G Kevin Zeitler, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, Edge Kyler Fackrell, LB David Mayo. Their major player returning from injury is Saquon Barkley. The Giants’ top draft pick was WR Kadarius Toney. Out of all of these moves, we will take 3 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the addition of Golladay, the loss of Zeitler, and the return of superstar RB Saquon Barkley #1 — One of the biggest WR moves this offseason was the Giants adding Kenny Golladay. After a few strong showings in Detroit as the WR1, Golladay is now in New York and ready to prove his worth as a big-play receiver. Due to his recent success, I increase New York’s receiving yards per game by 15.

#2 — One major offensive line loss was the loss of Kevin Zeitler. Like Ronald Darby for the Football Team, Zeitler started every regular-season game last year for the Giants. Therefore, despite his regression in recent years, his loss will be big in pass protection and running the ball. Thus, I increase New York’s pressure percentage allowed by 3% each game and decrease their yards before contact by 0.3 yards per game.

#3 — Lastly, the biggest addition for the New York Giants this year will be the return of Saquon Barkley. Despite sustaining a torn ACL last year, Barkley is still regarded as one of the best running backs in the league. He is extremely shifty, fast, and intelligent, the perfect makeup of a top RB. Therefore, I increase New York’s yards before and after contact by 0.6 every game. Moreover, due to his pass-catching ability, I increase their receiving yards per game by 10. Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Washington will win with the percentages being around 54% for Washington and 46% for New York after weighting. Conclusion Due to an effective offseason, the New York Giants will be able to beat the Washington Football team despite being the worse squad statistically, last year. They will be led by their imposing defensive line, dynamic run game, and potential for big plays. However, despite an improved offense, I still expect this game to be decided by defense rather than offense. The score will remain relatively low and neither team will have too much success dominating the other’s defense. This game is likely to be decided by turnovers, and the team with fewer mistakes will be able to prevail in the end. Based on my model’s estimation, that would be the New York Giants.

SportsTastic Model Predicted Winner New York Giants