Game Date: September 13, 2021
Detailed Analysis
Matchup-specific Preview
This article previews the September 13th, NFL Week 1 matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Las Vegas Raiders on ESPN. This matchup is interesting because it matches up the Raiders’ explosive offense against the Ravens’ dominant defense. The Raiders are led by the Derek Carr to Darren Waller connection that has carried them through the last few years. Moreover, they have a couple of second-year receivers that look to take a major step up this year. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have one of the best defenses in the league, on every level. Moreover, they have a dynamic rushing offense that will be able to put up points due to the efforts of former MVP Lamar Jackson. Baltimore is considered by most to be the better team, but the Raiders will always have a chance against any team in the NFL due to their offensive capabilities. In fact, they were the first of only two teams to hand the Kansas City Chiefs, the 2019-2020’s Superbowl champions, a loss last season.
First round of data analysis
The figure below shows that Baltimore has a 52% chance of winning this matchup due to their dominant running game. Led by arguably the greatest rushing QB of all time in Lamar Jackson, the Ravens have built a brand off of running the football in the last few years. With a supporting cast of JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, the Ravens have managed to lead the NFL in rushing over the past 2 years. Therefore, it makes sense that Baltimore is slightly favored as they are likely to dominate in the areas that are strengths to them.
I look at these 4 position groups and simulate who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Baltimore will win with the percentages being around 52% for Baltimore and 48% for Las Vegas after weighting.
Now that we've looked at 2020 data, I am now going to analyze the changes to each of these teams’ rosters that have happened over the last 6 months.
Second round of data analysis
The figure below shows that Baltimore has a 53.7% chance of winning this matchup because of their dominant running game and secondary. As I already mentioned, the Ravens’ rushing group is highlighted by their QB, Lamar Jackson. Paired with their solid secondary led by Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters, the Ravens play a very old school style of football that incorporates rushing and lockdown defense, while adding in their own flare in the form of a mobile quarterback. With all of this taken into consideration, it does make a lot of sense that Baltimore is slightly favored. The reason the probabilities are so close is that the Raiders still manage to dominate in terms of secondary and Dline pressure percentage, potentially allowing them to stay in this game until the end.
I looked at the same 4 position groups and simulated who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. The major change I made was that I had my model take into account players lost and gained over the offseason, injured players that are now returning, and the top draft picks made by each team. Each of these offseason changes is listed below:
The Baltimore Ravens’ major additions were WR Sammy Watkins and G Kevin Zeitler. Their major losses were Edge Matt Judon, Edge Yannick Ngakoue, RB Mark Ingram, C Matt Skura, WR Willie Snead IV, and G Marshal Yanda. They had no major injuries and their top draft picks were WR Rashod Bateman and LB Odafe Oweh.
We will take 3 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the additions of Watkins and Bateman to the receiving core, the loss of Yannick Ngakoue, and the addition of Kevin Zeitler.
#1 — Despite their strong running game over the past years, the Ravens’ offense has never been top-notch due to a mostly invisible passing game. Prior to this year, their number 1 target was speedster Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown. With the additions of Watkins and Bateman, the Ravens are getting big body wide receivers that share higher target shares. Therefore, I increase their receiving yards per game by 25.
#2 — Ever since he entered the NFL, Yannick Ngakoue has been superb at pass rushing. Although his run game penetration still isn’t very good, he is a top-tier defensive lineman in terms of his pressures on passing plays. With his loss, the Ravens are losing a great interior presence that can wreak havoc on games. Thus, I decrease their pressure percentage by 5%.
#3 — Lastly, the addition of Kevin Zeitler means that the Ravens will be able to replace their losses on the offensive line with a consistent starter in Zeitler. Although he has regressed in recent years, he will likely have more of an opportunity to return back to his normal self as the Baltimore offensive line is already strong. Therefore, I decrease Baltimore’s pressure percentage allowed by 3% each game and increase their yards before contact by 0.3 yards per game.
The Las Vegas Raiders’ major additions were WR John Brown, RB Kenyan Drake, Edge Yannick Ngakoue, DT Quinton Jefferson, C Nick Martin, DL Solomon Thomas, and WR Willie Snead IV Their major losses were OT Trent Brown, C Rodney Hudson, OL Gabe Jackson, WR Nelson Agholor, WR Tyrell Williams, DB Lamarcus Joyner, Edge Takkarist McKinley, and S Erik Harris. They have no major players returning from injury. The Raiders’ top draft picks were OT Alex Leatherwood and S Trevon Moehrig.
Out of all of these moves, we will take 3 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the addition of Yannick Ngakoue, the major losses to their offensive line, and the drafting of Trevon Moehrig
#1 — The addition of Yannick Ngakoue means that the Raiders may finally have a player who is able to produce good pressure in the post-Khalil Mack era. Although Ngakoue isn’t great in the rushing attack, he performs well on passing downs. Therefore, I increase their pressure percentage by 4%.
#2 — Arguably the biggest head-scratcher of the whole offseason was how the Raiders managed their offensive line situation. Even though it was clear that the Raiders would be over the cap, their fans were still horrified at the news that their three best offensive linemen, Rodney Hudson, Gabe Jackson, and Trent Brown, were being traded. Due to these negative changes and no real replacement for each of the players, I increase the Raiders’ pressure percentage allowed per game by 6%.
#3 — Lastly, the drafting of Trevon Moehrig means that the Raiders are willing to prioritize positions on their defense despite the offense’s ability to make big plays. Moehrig’s addition will be big for their secondary, and I, therefore, decrease their passing yards allowed by 15 every game.
Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Baltimore will win with the percentages being around 54% for Baltimore and 46% for Las Vegas after weighting.
Conclusion
Despite the many players that have left in the offseason, the Baltimore Ravens are still projected to beat the Las Vegas Raiders. Both teams have very, very different playstyles, with Baltimore’s focusing on rushing the ball and the Raiders’ based on getting big passing plays. Although both teams still have the means to stop the opposing threats, with the likes of a dominant secondary for the Ravens and penetrating Dline for the raiders, I still expect this game to be a high-scoring affair. Although I agree with my model’s predicted winner, I think that this game could play out very similarly to the Raiders games against the Kansas City Chiefs last year, with the last possession of the game-deciding the winner of the matchup.
SportsTastic Model Predicted Winner:
Baltimore Ravens
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