Game Date: September 12, 2021
Detailed Analysis
Matchup-specific Preview
This article previews the September 12th, NFL Week 1 matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts on FOX. This matchup is interesting because it matches up the Seahawks’ superb passing attack with the Colts’ unstoppable rushing game. The Seahawks are led by 2 of the top receivers in the NFL, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, with star QB Russell Wilson throwing them the ball. The Seahawks’ running game isn’t too bad either, despite their poor offensive line, as they have a great RB in Chris Carson and Wilson is quite mobile himself. On the other side, the Colts have a dominant run game led by 2nd year RB Jonathan Taylor and 4th year OL Quenton Nelson. The two young stars managed to do big things rushing the football last year and will likely continue to this season. Moreover, they have a great linebacking core led by Darius Leonard, which will look to slow down the Seahawks’ passing and rushing attacks. Both teams are considered to be evenly matched given how they balance out each other's strengths and weaknesses.
First round of data analysis
The figure below shows that Indianapolis has a 53% chance of winning this matchup due to their outstanding defensive line and linebackers. Their linebacking group is led by top-3 LB Darius Leonard, who will cause the Seahawks trouble in both the rushing and passing game. However, their dominance in the defensive line department is more of a testament to Seattle’s extremely weak offensive line. Being one of the worst units in the NFL over the last few seasons, most opponents of the Seahawks have managed to put up great numbers despite their own defensive line’s skill. Therefore, given that the line of scrimmage is the most important battle in all of football, it makes sense why the Colts would be sizeable favorites going into this game.
I look at these 4 position groups and simulate who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Seattle will win with the percentages being around 53% for Indianapolis and 47% for Seattle after weighting.
Now that we've looked at 2020 data, I am now going to analyze the changes to each of these teams’ rosters that have happened over the last 6 months.
Second round of data analysis
The figure below shows that Indianapolis has a 55% chance of winning this matchup because of their overpowering offensive line and linebacker units. Led by 3x All-Pros OL Quenton Nelson and LB Darius Leonard, the Colts will win this game through hard-nosed football, in their case rushing and tackling. With emerging star RB Jonathan Taylor in the backfield, we can expect a big day rushing from the Colts which is likely to propel them to beat the Seahawks. However, given that the Seahawks have a borderline magician in QB Russell Wilson, they will always be in a position to win and will need to capitalize on big plays from their top 2 receivers, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett if they hope to win this game.
I looked at the same 4 position groups and simulated who will win based on passing yards, pressure percentage, yards before contact per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. The major change I made was that I had my model take into account players lost and gained over the offseason, injured players that are now returning, and the top draft picks made by each team. Each of these offseason changes is listed below:
The Seattle Seahawks’ major additions were G Gabe Jackson, Edge Kerry Hyder Jr, TE Gerald Everett, and CB Ahkello Witherspoon. Their major losses were CB Shaquill Griffin, TE Jacob Hollister, RB Carlos Hyde, WR David Moore, WR Phillip Dorsett II, DT Jarran Reed, and CB Quinton Dunbar. They had no major injuries and their top draft pick was WR D'Wayne Eskridge.
We will take 2 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the addition of Gabe Jackson and the loss of their 2 top cornerbacks, Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar.
#1 — Over the last few seasons, the Seahawks’ main weak point has been their offensive line. Due to their poor protection, the Seahawks and their star QB Russell Wilson had conversations over the offseason regarding why Wilson should remain in Seattle. In order to keep their QB healthy, the Seahawks traded for Gabe Jackson, who was a massive part of the Raiders’ dominant offensive lines for the past few seasons. Therefore, I decrease their pressure percentage allowed by 4% each game.
#2 — A previously dominant unit, the Seahawks’ secondary is now depleted. Just a half-decade ago, the Legion Of Boom was shutting down top offenses, but after their arrival, the Seahawks haven’t found proper footing. Now, with the loss of their 2 best corners, they are bound to give up more yards on a game-to-game basis. Therefore, I increase their receiving yards allowed by 20 per game.
The Indianapolis Colts’ major additions were QB Carson Wentz, OT Sam Tevi, OT Julie'n Davenport, OT Eric Fisher, and S Sean Davis. Their major losses were LB Anthony Walker, DL Denico Autry, QB Jacoby Brissett, S Tavon Wilson, OT Anthony Castonzo. Their best player returning from a covid holdout is WR Paris Campbell. The Colts’ top draft pick was DL Kwity Paye.
Out of all of these moves, we will take 2 major changes into our revised model. These changes include the QB switch from Philip Rivers to Carson Wentz and adding Eric Fisher to the offensive line.
#1 — After last season, NFL veteran QB Philip Rivers retired, and in his place, the Colts signed Carson Wentz. Although at this current moment, both are quite similar in terms of overall ability, they have different skillsets which need to be taken into account. Wentz is much more mobile than Rivers who likes to spend his time in the pocket, so I decrease the pressure percentage allowed by 5%. However, Rivers has been a better passer over the last few years when compared to the struggling Wentz, so I decrease receiving yards per game by 20.
#2 — A great addition the Colts made over the offseason was their acquisition of former Chiefs’ OL Eric Fisher. Fisher can slide in as an immediate starter and has been a pro-bowler in the past, strengthening this already dominant offensive line. Therefore, I decrease the pressure percentage allowed by 3%.
Based on these criteria, and using this statistical approach, I predict Indianapolis will win with the percentages being around 55% for Indianapolis and 45% for Seattle after weighting.
Conclusion
Behind their dominant offensive line and linebacker units, the Colts will manage to win this game with more of an old-schooled, run-centric offense. Both teams have playoffs hopes and their first game will be a major testament to who will make the playoffs this year. Due to Russell Wilson’s ability to pull out wins from games that seem destined to be lost, one cannot count out the Seahawks and their dynamic, down-the-field offense. This will likely be a 1-2 possession game for the most part, and if the Seahawks want to make up that ground, they will need their top receivers to make chunk-plays and bring them within reach to beat the Colts.
SportsTastic Model Predicted Winner
Indianapolis Colts
Comentarios